🎾 ATP Madrid: Karen Khachanov vs Reilly Opelka

🎾 ATP Madrid: Karen Khachanov vs Reilly Opelka – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇷🇺 Karen Khachanov

• Grit over Glamour: Battling through matches despite not being at peak fitness—semifinal run in Barcelona shows determination.
• Seasonal Struggles: Holds an 8–9 W-L record in 2025, though momentum is improving after a rough 5–8 start.
• Madrid Track Record: Progressing well recently—QF in 2023, R16 in 2024 (losses to Alcaraz and Sinner).
• Fighting Spirit: Pushed six straight top-20 players deep into matches, showing persistence and belief.

🇺🇸 Reilly Opelka

• Serve-First Threat: Snapped a long clay-court drought with a first-round win over Rinky Hijikata—his first clay victory since 2022.
• Madrid Mismatches: Only once past R1 in three career attempts, struggling to adapt his serve-heavy game here.
• Altitude Helper: Madrid’s faster clay enhances his serve, offering a better shot than most clay venues.
• Physical Recovery: Still regaining full match sharpness after injury interruptions—relies on quick points to minimize physical strain.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Khachanov’s versatility, heavy groundstrokes, and patience in longer rallies provide significant advantages here. Madrid’s conditions suit his flatter forehand and willingness to extend points.

Opelka’s only viable path is to dominate with his serve and push the match into tiebreaks. But if Khachanov consistently gets returns into play and extends rallies, the American’s lack of clay-court movement will likely be exposed.

Given Khachanov’s recent fighting form and Opelka’s limited rhythm on clay, the Russian looks better equipped to handle this matchup—even if a tiebreak or two is needed.

🔮 Prediction

✔️ Prediction: Karen Khachanov in 2 tight sets

Expect at least one tiebreak, but Khachanov’s resilience, superior baseline play, and clay-court comfort should see him edge past Opelka in straight sets.

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