🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Alexander Bublik vs Alex Michelsen

🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Alexander Bublik vs Alex Michelsen – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇺🇸 Alex Michelsen

• Clay learning curve: Still adapting—just a 10–14 career record on red clay.
• Fitness issues: Injuries derailed momentum after a strong start; retired in Indian Wells R3, lost early in Miami.
• Houston lift: A quarterfinal run gave him some rhythm ahead of the European clay swing.
• Madrid debut: Lost to Joao Fonseca in 2024 despite taking the opening set—seeking redemption this year.

🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik

• Inconsistent brilliance: Known for eccentric play and unpredictable results—currently ranked No. 75.
• Altitude effect: Prefers Madrid’s faster conditions—quarterfinalist in 2021, R16 last year.
• Recent signs: Came through Munich qualifying and pushed Zizou Bergs to three sets—suggesting growing confidence.
• Clay allergy: Openly dislikes the surface—but Madrid’s pace suits his flat strokes and unique arsenal.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a clash between two players who wouldn’t pick clay if given the choice. Michelsen’s strengths—big serve, early ball striking—are usually blunted on slower courts. But in Madrid’s altitude, he might find a few extra free points and chances to dictate.

Bublik, on the other hand, thrives in Madrid’s unique conditions. His serve, drop shots, and low-bouncing backhand become weapons here. The biggest question remains his mindset—if locked in, he’s the more dangerous and experienced player.

Michelsen has the tools to trouble Bublik, especially if the Kazakh loses focus. But based on past Madrid performance and current trajectory, Bublik is slightly favored.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Alexander Bublik in 3 sets

Expect some wild rallies, sudden breaks of serve, and signature Bublik trickery. If he keeps his head, he’ll move on—but not without drama.