🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jan-Lennard Struff

🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jan-Lennard Struff

🧠 Form & Context

Jan-Lennard Struff
🇩🇪 Freefall in progress: Since withdrawing from the Paris Olympics last year, Struff has struggled badly—just 3–11 in 2025 and winless on clay this spring.
📉 Clay woes amplified: Lost R1 in both Monte Carlo (to Vacherot) and Munich (to Cerundolo, 0–6 set included), the latter as defending champion.
📍 Madrid memories: A finalist here in 2023, where he played some of the best tennis of his career. But he returns as a shadow of that version, now ranked No. 79.
🛠️ Critical crossroad: Madrid could offer the spark to recover—or emphasize just how far he's fallen.

Botic van de Zandschulp
🇳🇱 Inconsistent but opportunistic: Has capitalized on lucky loser entries this year with wins over Kyrgios (Miami) and Bautista Agut (Munich), hinting at a slow rebuild.
⚖️ Small signs of life: While far from peak form, he's been more competitive than Struff in recent months.
📍 Madrid conditions: His heavy, flat baseline game benefits from altitude bounce and quicker clay, making him a tricky opponent on this surface.
🎯 No pressure, all upside: Playing with freedom against a wounded opponent.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This match is less about rankings or weapons and more about mentality and momentum. Struff is clearly off his game—rushing decisions, missing routine forehands, and showing visible tension in key moments. His confidence, once bolstered by the 2023 Madrid run, now seems almost non-existent.

Botic, while not back to his best, has at least stabilized. His win over Bautista Agut in Munich showed baseline solidity, patience, and decent shot selection—traits that are vital in altitude-based clay conditions. If he avoids lapses, he should expose Struff’s fragility in longer exchanges.

Unless Struff redlines his serve and forehand early, he may not have the stamina—mental or physical—to withstand a consistent Botic performance. Madrid's magic may not be enough to rescue him this time.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Botic van de Zandschulp in straight sets
Struff is in a confidence spiral, and van de Zandschulp’s steadier baseline game should be enough to secure a composed, efficient win—especially if Struff starts to unravel early.