🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Kei Nishikori vs Aleksandar Vukic

🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Kei Nishikori vs Aleksandar Vukic

🧠 Form & Context

Kei Nishikori

• 🇯🇵 Still dangerous when fit: Showed flashes of brilliance with a runner-up finish in Hong Kong earlier this year.
• 🩼 Fragile health: Withdrew from Miami and retired in Houston—his physical reliability is uncertain at best.
• 🏟️ Madrid memories: Five straight QFs or better from 2013–17, including a 2014 final—Madrid suits his game perfectly.
• 🔙 If he's moving well: He can still dictate rallies with precision, variety, and strategic nous.

Aleksandar Vukic

• 🇦🇺 Confidence crisis: On a 9-match losing streak, including several close three-setters where he couldn't finish.
• 🧠 Mental block: Has had multiple leads slip away during this clay swing—match management is a clear concern.
• 📉 Madrid déjà vu: Lost R1 here in 2023 to another Japanese player (Taro Daniel) in three sets—patterns repeating.
• 🔥 Must keep it short: To win, he’ll need to go big early and avoid extended rallies where Nishikori excels.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This match is a battle of contrasting form and fitness. Vukic has tools—big serve, clean groundstrokes—but lacks confidence and consistency late in sets. Nishikori, by contrast, brings elite court craft and Madrid pedigree, but his body is his biggest opponent.

If Nishikori is physically sound, he should be able to draw errors from Vukic with his variation and defensive reads. If not, and this drags into a physical third set, Vukic could finally catch a break.

🔮 Prediction

✅ Winner: Kei Nishikori in 2 tight sets

He’s more tactically composed and historically excellent in Madrid. But if this goes the distance, fitness could flip the script in Vukic’s favor.