🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic

🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic

🧠 Form & Context

Miomir Kecmanovic
🇷🇸 Fighter reborn: Kecmanovic’s early 2025 included a semifinal run in Adelaide and a title in Delray Beach—his first ATP trophy since 2020—signaling renewed confidence and composure.
⚖️ Close but tough on clay: Despite a 1–2 record during the European clay swing, he’s gone toe-to-toe with the likes of Tiafoe and Darderi in long, gritty three-setters.
📍 Madrid struggles contextual: A 2–4 record in Madrid might look modest, but all four losses came to elite names (Nadal, Ruud, Isner). This year’s draw offers a more balanced matchup.
🔄 Improved tactical discipline: A smarter, more controlled baseline game has made him a better clay-courter in 2025.

Lorenzo Sonego
🇮🇹 Early peak, now declining: After reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals, Sonego’s season has fizzled, with three straight losses and no clay wins to date.
📉 Momentum missing: Recent defeats to Kopriva (Marrakech) and Martinez (Monte Carlo) were both winnable three-setters, but errors and poor decision-making proved costly.
📍 Madrid misfires: Holds just one win here, and it came against an out-of-form Richard Gasquet. The altitude has not helped his high-risk style.
🧨 Still dangerous: His big serve and flashy forehand can take over sets—if he’s feeling it. But consistency remains elusive.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a stylistic duel between aggression and patience. Sonego will look to hit through the court, especially with his forehand, while Kecmanovic will aim to stay solid and grind out errors with topspin-heavy consistency.

The high bounce in Madrid could help both—Sonego with his kick serve and inside-out forehand, and Kecmanovic with his comfort defending and redirecting high balls. But current form is the tipping point here: the Serbian has been more composed and resilient in recent matches, even in defeat, while Sonego’s shot selection has looked erratic.

Kecmanovic’s ability to stay calm and extend points should frustrate the Italian, especially if Sonego doesn't get early scoreboard control. If rallies go long, Kecmanovic gains the edge.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Kecmanovic in 3 sets
Expect Sonego to start hot but fade as the match becomes more physical. Kecmanovic’s recent form and surface stability should eventually grind him into the second round.