🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Zizou Bergs vs Yoshihito Nishioka

🎾 ATP Madrid R1: Zizou Bergs vs Yoshihito Nishioka

🧠 Form & Context

Zizou Bergs
🇧🇪 Top 50 debut season: The Belgian has strung together a consistent 2025 campaign, highlighted by a final in Auckland, quarterfinal in Munich, and wins in every ATP main draw appearance until Monte Carlo.
🔁 Marozsan trouble: Fell to Fabian Marozsan twice in April, but rebounded well after each loss, showing his growing mental fortitude.
📈 Opportunity knocks: No ranking points to defend this week after a first-round exit in Madrid last year. The door is open for a deep run.
🎯 Altitude edge: His power game and aggressive court style are enhanced by Madrid's quicker clay—conditions he’s proven he can thrive in.

Yoshihito Nishioka
🇯🇵 Injury-hit campaign: The Japanese lefty has retired from three matches this season and hasn’t played since March’s Miami Open.
📉 Limited clay credentials: Just four clay wins in all of 2023 and a first-round loss here in Madrid last year. The slow surface and high bounce don’t typically suit his flatter, counterpunching style.
⚠️ Fitness doubts: His physical state remains a major unknown, and without recent match rhythm, expectations are understandably low.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup presents a clear contrast in form and readiness. Bergs is in peak condition, steadily climbing the rankings and adapting well to the clay swing. His forehand-heavy offense and ability to shorten points will be further aided by the altitude, giving him a decisive edge in first-strike execution.

Nishioka, by contrast, enters Madrid cold—no clay matches this season, no recent wins, and persistent fitness concerns. His ability to redirect pace and vary rhythm can disrupt opponents when he’s sharp, but asking for high-level execution with limited preparation may be too much against a confident, altitude-adept opponent like Bergs.

The Belgian should dominate the shorter rallies, dictate on serve, and test Nishioka’s fitness by extending baseline exchanges when needed.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Bergs in straight sets
Unless Nishioka produces something special from a cold start, Bergs’ form, weapons, and Madrid comfort make him a strong favorite. A one-sided affair is very much on the cards if the Japanese lefty shows signs of rust.