🎾 ATP Madrid: Reilly Opelka vs Rinky Hijikata

🎾 ATP Madrid: Reilly Opelka vs Rinky Hijikata

🧠 Form & Context

Reilly Opelka
🇺🇸 After more than a year away from the tour, Opelka returned last week in Barcelona and was soundly beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas, 6-2, 6-2. While rust was expected, the lack of competitiveness raised questions. Historically, clay has never suited his game—his career win rate on the surface hovers below 40%, and in Madrid he holds a 1–3 main draw record. That said, the altitude in Madrid does enhance his biggest weapon: the serve. If there’s any clay event where he could be effective, it’s this one.

Rinky Hijikata
🇦🇺 Hijikata is also in search of momentum. Outside the top 100, he’s notched just five ATP main-draw wins in 2025 and has yet to win back-to-back matches at this level all year. Clay remains a tough ask for the Aussie—he went 1–6 on the surface last year and is debuting in Madrid this week. While he’s shown flashes of quality on hard courts, including wins in Indian Wells and Miami, red dirt continues to be his weakest surface.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a meeting of two players lacking rhythm. Opelka has altitude-assisted firepower, but no recent clay form to lean on. Hijikata has better movement and match fitness, but lacks the weapons to truly hurt Opelka unless the American’s first serve abandons him.

Hijikata will need to get returns into play and draw rallies out, hoping Opelka’s rhythm is still missing. However, in Madrid’s thin air, even a rusty Opelka can string together unreturnable serves and short points. If the match is tight, expect tiebreaks—an area where the big man still holds the edge.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Opelka in 2 close sets
Hijikata’s consistency could push sets deep, but Opelka’s serve is a game-changer in altitude, and he should find enough rhythm to scrape through—likely via one or two tiebreaks.