🎾 ATP Monte Carlo: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexei Popyrin

🎾 ATP Monte Carlo: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexei Popyrin – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇪🇸 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

• 🎯 Monte Carlo magic: Third quarterfinal here since 2021, including a runner-up finish in 2022.
• ⚠️ Still volatile: Nearly squandered a lead vs Draper but held firm to win 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 in R4.
• 🔥 Strong 2025: One of his most consistent seasons to date—finally pairing his clay skills with reliability.
• 📍 Surface sweet spot: Natural mover and shot-maker on clay; thrives in long, physical exchanges.
• 🧠 Mental challenge: Still susceptible to dips in focus, especially when in control.

🇦🇺 Alexei Popyrin

• 🧱 Underdog surge: Saved match points to knock out Casper Ruud in R4—his third consecutive comeback win.
• 🚨 Season revived: Entered Monte Carlo at 2–7 in 2025; now riding his best streak since his 2024 Montreal title run.
• 🧩 Momentum builder: Beat Humbert, Tiafoe, and Ruud—all from a set down—reminiscent of past giant-killing form.
• 😤 Never-say-die: Battling spirit has defined his week; winning with grit and heart over clay comfort.
• 📉 Clay doubts easing: Historically struggled on this surface but adjusting well in Monaco’s conditions.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This quarterfinal is a stylistic chess match. Davidovich Fokina holds the edge in clay-court pedigree—he's quicker, more creative, and more comfortable extending rallies on slow red dirt. He’ll look to pull Popyrin wide, vary with drop shots and spin, and use the Monte Carlo bounce to his advantage.

Popyrin, meanwhile, is riding a huge wave of momentum. He's played fearless, clutch tennis all week, saving match points and flipping scripts. His serve and forehand are big enough to take control of rallies—even on clay—if he gets time to set up. But the concern is whether his legs can handle another long battle after three straight three-setters.

The pressure might shift to Davidovich if he can’t close sets quickly—something that’s plagued him in past Monte Carlo runs. But if he stays disciplined and absorbs the Aussie’s power, his movement and variety should make the difference.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets

Popyrin has been the comeback king all week, but Davidovich Fokina knows this court like home—and that experience, combined with better clay instincts, should see him survive and advance to the semifinals.