🎾 WTA Charleston: Gracheva vs Mertens

🎾 WTA Charleston: Gracheva vs Mertens – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🟩 Elise Mertens

• 📈 Strong start to 2025: Already past half of her 2024 win total with a title in Singapore and a final in Hobart.
• 🚪 Big-stage ceiling? Hasn’t made a QF at a WTA 500+ since Charleston 2024, where she beat Svitolina and Gracheva before falling to Kasatkina.
• 🎾 Clay versatility: Her steady, tactical baseline game translates well to green clay and works particularly well against erratic hitters.
• 📍 Charleston track record: A reliable performer here, with consistent deep runs and a previous win over Gracheva at this event.

🟥 Varvara Gracheva

• 🔄 Looking for rhythm: Beat Harriet Dart in R1, marking her best Charleston result to date.
• 📉 Struggles on clay: Just 2–9 lifetime vs. top-30 opponents on the surface — and still seeking a breakthrough since RG 2023.
• 🧱 Surface mismatch: Her timing-based game often falters on slower clay, especially against consistent retrievers.
• 🔁 Seeking revenge: Down 0–2 in the head-to-head vs. Mertens, including a three-set loss here last year.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This match favors Mertens on multiple levels. Her clay-court IQ, defensive skills, and ability to construct points should expose Gracheva’s inconsistencies. Mertens is especially dangerous on return — a major edge against Gracheva’s vulnerable second serve.

Gracheva can hit cleanly when in rhythm, but she lacks a plan B when matches become attritional. On green clay, where ball timing becomes tricky, her flat-hitting style often struggles. Mertens, with her court craft and experience, should be able to disrupt her timing and pull her into longer, uncomfortable exchanges.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Mertens in 2 sets

Gracheva may flash brilliance, but Mertens’ clay savvy, recent form, and head-to-head dominance give her a firm advantage. Expect her to methodically control the match tempo and grind out a routine win.