🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens

🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka

• Madrid Mastery: Two-time champion (2021, 2023) and three-time finalist at Caja Mágica, nearly winning a third title last year against Iga Swiatek.
• Grand Expectations: World No. 1, with eight finals and five titles captured since August 2024.
• Strong Start: Defeated Anna Blinkova 6-3, 6-4 in R2, saving six of seven breakpoints without much drama.
• Big-Match Mentality: Consistently rises to the occasion at elite-level events.

🇧🇪 Elise Mertens

• Solid Opening: Beat Camila Osorio 6-3, 6-3 by dominating behind her first serve and converting key breakpoints.
• Madrid Consistency: Reached at least the third round three times, including QF in 2021 and R4 in 2023.
• Inconsistent 2025: Strong start (Hobart finalist, Singapore champion) but struggles for momentum at bigger events.
• Steady but Vulnerable: Top-30 consistency remains, but lacks the offensive tools to challenge top players regularly.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Sabalenka holds every advantage heading into this clash. Her overwhelming power, serve dominance, and proven success at Madrid’s altitude make her the clear favorite. She's won eight straight matches against Mertens, including a dominant 6-4, 6-1 win last week in Stuttgart.

While Mertens is tactically smart and can absorb pace effectively, she lacks the offensive firepower necessary to consistently trouble Sabalenka. Unless the Belarusian suffers a significant dip in focus, the outcome should be straightforward.

Madrid’s faster clay surface only increases Sabalenka’s ability to hit through the court with ease, further tipping the scales in her favor.

🔮 Prediction

✔️ Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets

Expect Sabalenka to dominate proceedings, likely wrapping up the match in under 18 total games unless Mertens stages an improbable resistance.

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