🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk

🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka

• Madrid magic: Two-time champion (2021, 2023) and undefeated in both quarterfinal and semifinal appearances at Caja Mágica (3–0).
• Peak powers: On a six-match winning streak in quarterfinals and has reached 14 semifinals since the start of 2024.
• World No. 1 dominance: Leads the WTA tour with 28 wins since January and boasts titles in Miami and Brisbane, plus runner-up showings at the AO, IW, and Stuttgart.
• Quick work: Made light work of Peyton Stearns (6-2, 6-4), her cleanest Madrid win yet, with 23 winners to just 13 unforced errors.

🇺🇦 Marta Kostyuk

• Best Madrid run: Reached her first Madrid quarterfinal after five prior attempts, following wins over Raducanu, Kudermetova, and Potapova.
• Consistent strides on clay: This is her fifth clay-court quarterfinal (2–2 record), and she’s looking for her second-ever WTA 1000 semifinal (after Indian Wells 2024).
• Quarterfinal struggles: Has lost her last three WTA-level quarterfinals and holds an 8–10 record overall at this stage.
• Finally a smooth win: Beat Potapova 6-3, 6-2 in her first straight-sets victory of the tournament, saving all five break points faced.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Aryna Sabalenka’s powerful, first-strike tennis is tailor-made for Madrid’s altitude, where the clay plays faster and rewards aggression. She’s yet to drop a set this week and enters this quarterfinal with an aura of invincibility in Caja Mágica—never having lost in the QF/SF stages here.

Kostyuk brings more variety and has improved her movement and consistency on clay. She can counter-punch and disrupt rhythm, but it’s unlikely to bother Sabalenka unless she can consistently extend rallies, force errors, and capitalize on any nerves or physical drop-offs.

The Ukrainian’s mental strength has also been in question during deeper stages of tournaments, especially against top-tier opponents. Sabalenka, by contrast, thrives in these moments and has turned her once erratic energy into a strength.

Given their two previous meetings—both won by Sabalenka in identical 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3, 6-2 scorelines—history, form, and conditions overwhelmingly favor the Belarusian.

🔮 Prediction

🧩 Prediction: Sabalenka in 2 sets – 6-3, 6-4 type scoreline. Expect one tight set before Aryna pulls away.