🎾 WTA Madrid: Katie Boulter vs Jasmine Paolini

🎾 WTA Madrid: Katie Boulter vs Jasmine Paolini

🧠 Form & Context

Jasmine Paolini
🇮🇹 The Italian has solidified her position as a legitimate Top 10 contender, following up her Slam breakthrough season with consistent results in 2025. A 15–7 record and back-to-back semifinals in Miami and Stuttgart reflect her rising confidence. Taking out Coco Gauff on clay was no small feat, and her R4 run in Madrid last year laid the foundation for another strong performance here.

Katie Boulter
🇬🇧 It’s taken time, but Boulter finally made it past the opening round on clay, defeating Siniakova in a chaotic three-set battle. Still, her game is clearly more suited to faster surfaces. Madrid’s altitude gives her some help, but her movement and point construction on clay remain a work in progress. She missed February’s swing due to injury and is still looking for rhythm.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a tactical contrast: Paolini brings court coverage, consistency, and clay-court IQ, while Boulter brings raw power and flat hitting. The thin air in Madrid may allow Boulter’s strokes to penetrate more easily, but it’s also likely to exaggerate her unforced error count if she over-presses.

Paolini, on the other hand, has shown she can beat top-tier opponents on clay and isn’t afraid of long rallies. Her ability to turn defense into offense and exploit movement weaknesses should be a key asset against the less clay-tuned Boulter.

Although their head-to-head stands at 2–2, none of those meetings occurred on clay. On this surface, Paolini’s recent form and tactical edge give her the clear upper hand.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Paolini in straight sets
Unless Boulter redlines for a full match, expect the Italian to dictate terms with smart point construction and exploit the Brit’s limited comfort on clay.