🎾 WTA Stuttgart: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jelena Ostapenko – Semifinal

🎾 WTA Stuttgart: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jelena Ostapenko – Semifinal Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇱🇻 Jelena Ostapenko

• Swiatek stunner: Ended Iga Swiatek’s Stuttgart reign and improved to 6–0 in their head-to-head, securing her first win over the Pole on clay.
• First-time run: This is her maiden Stuttgart semifinal after failing to string together three wins here in six previous appearances.
• Slump shattered: Entered the week having failed to win back-to-back matches in 13 of her last 14 tournaments—but now riding real momentum.
• Big-match energy: Three of her five career top-5 wins have come against Swiatek. When her confidence builds, she becomes a serious threat.
• Clay revival: Her first semifinal on the surface since Rome 2023, suggesting her timing and movement are peaking again.

🇷🇺 Ekaterina Alexandrova

• Ice-cold form: She’s lost just 15 games all week, cruising past Andreeva, Samsonova, and Pegula without dropping a set.
• Revenge mode: Avenged her Charleston loss to Pegula with a dominant 6-0, 6-4 win in the quarterfinals.
• Elite-level scalps: Five top-10 wins in 2025 alone—she now owns 19 for her career, building a serious resume.
• Stuttgart breakthrough: Into her first semifinal here after early exits in most of her 2025 events—clicking at the right time.
• SF struggles: Has gone just 2–7 in semifinals since 2022. She’s chasing her first final since Linz 2023.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This semifinal features two explosive players riding hot streaks—but coming in with very different emotional arcs. Ostapenko is fresh off a career-defining win over Swiatek on clay. That emotional high gives her momentum, but it also introduces risk—her level often swings wildly after big wins.

Alexandrova is playing some of the most composed tennis of her career. Her clean, low-striking game is lethal on indoor clay, and she’s been dismantling opponents with quiet authority. Her flat pace could rush Ostapenko, especially if the Latvian’s footwork slips or her risk-taking backfires.

Their head-to-head is dead even at 5–5, but Ostapenko has taken the last three. That said, Alexandrova hasn’t looked this sharp or consistent in those past meetings. If she holds her ground early and stays emotionally steady, she could outlast the fireworks.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Ekaterina Alexandrova in 3 sets

Ostapenko’s power and confidence make her dangerous, especially early—but Alexandrova’s form, shot tolerance, and indoor clay game give her the slight edge in what should be a high-drama semifinal.